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Nintendo Adjusts Switch Sales Forecast Amid Anticipation for Switch 2

Nintendo has revised its sales forecast for the Switch console for this financial year, reflecting growing expectations around the anticipated arrival of its successor, the Switch 2.

As of 5 November (today), Nintendo has lowered its sales projection for the fiscal year ending March 2025 from 13.5 million units to 12.5 million units. This adjustment comes as the Switch enters its eighth year on the market. Additionally, the company has decreased its overall forecast for sales, lowering it from 1.35 trillion yen to 1.28 trillion yen, alongside a revised operating profit estimate, which has dropped from 400 billion yen to 360 billion yen.

With demand for the aging Switch waning, Nintendo announced plans to unveil the next-generation console during the current financial year, implying fans can expect more information before April 2025.

In its second quarter of the current financial year (July to September 2024), Nintendo reported revenues of 276.7 billion yen ($1.8 billion) and a net profit of 27.7 billion yen ($182 million). These figures represent a stark decline: a 17% drop in revenue and an alarming 69% decrease in profit compared to the same quarter last year.

Last year was particularly lucrative for Nintendo, buoyed by the success of the Super Mario Bros. Movie and The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom, both of which set sales records. This year, however, has seen a significant reduction in major releases.

In the first half of this fiscal year ending 30 September, Nintendo sold 4.72 million Switch units, compared to 6.84 million during the same period last year—a shocking decline of 31%. Software sales also fell nearly 28% year-on-year, totalling 70.28 million units.

“Nintendo experienced exceptionally high hardware and software sales in the first half of the previous fiscal year, largely due to the impact of the Mario movie,” the company noted. They added, “This year, without any significant promotional factors, alongside the ageing of the Switch, we saw a marked decline in both hardware and software sales.”

Despite this, Nintendo shared updates on the performance of its recently released titles. Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door has sold 1.94 million units since its launched in May. Luigi’s Mansion 2 HD, released in June, reached 1.57 million units in sales, while The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom, which debuted in September, “got off to a good start” with 2.58 million units sold. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe continues to thrive, selling an impressive additional 2.31 million units, bringing its total sales to an astounding 64.27 million.

Looking ahead, while Nintendo has not disclosed specifics regarding the Switch 2, it remains committed to promoting the current Switch model. “Our aim is not only to place one system in every home but to foster multiple consoles in each household—one for everyone,” Nintendo affirmed. “We will also continue to introduce new offerings to ensure that consumers keep playing Nintendo Switch, ultimately maximizing hardware sales.”

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